rokko
05-21-2012, 11:27 PM
the sweet science
THE FIGHT:
Lucian Buteversus Carl Froch
Saturday, May 26
At the Capital FM Arena, Nottingham, England, on EPIX and SKY SPORTS.
12 rounds, for Bute's IBF super-middleweight title {168 pounds}
STATISTICS:
Carl FrochLucian Bute
34Age 32
Nottingham, England HometownPechea, Romania
BritishNationality Canadian
Mar 16 2002 Pro DebutNov 22 2003
28-2{20}Record 30-0 {24}
6ft 1ins Height 6ft 2ins
74 1/2ins Reach 72 ins
Orthodox Stance Southpaw
211 Rounds Boxed 193
66.67KO % 80
-6 Compubox +/-+10
27%Connect rate 32%
33%Opponent's connect rate 22%
Common Opponents
W KO 11Brian MageeW TKO 10
W TKO 2Sergey TatevosyanW UD 12
W MD 12 Glen Johnson W UD 12
Last5 Fights
L UD Andre Ward W UD 12 Glen Johnson
W MD 12 Glen Johnson W KO 4 Jean-Paul Mendy
W UD 12 Arthur Abraham W TKO 10 Brian Magee
L UD 12 Mikkel Kessler W KO 9 Jesse Brinkley
W SD 12 Andre Dirrell W TKO 2 Edison Miranda
****Career Opposition Quality **1/2
****1/2Recent Opposition Quality ***
STYLE, STRATEGY & SHOT SELECTION:
Carl Froch: No longerthe one dimensional slugger of old, Froch is now more of an unorthodox boxer-puncher -- Awkward but effective rhythmconfuses opponents -- Deceptivelyquick hands -- Good conditioning -- Tall, with long arms, he operates betterfrom the outside than on the inside-- World class chin compensates for defensive deficiencies -- Carries hands low,looking to entice opponentsinto opening up -- Vastly underrated jab -- Despite common perception, is actuallymore effectivebacking up behindthe jab, which he throws from a very obtuse angle, as opposed toapplying relentless pressure andbrawling--Owner ofgood power, particularly withthe right uppercut, although he hasn't finished an opponent since 2009 -- Distinct lack of footspeed and athleticism hurt him against Andre Ward last time out-- Can overwhelm an opponent with volume -- Supreme self confidence and mental toughnessare his best assets.
Lucian Bute: Slick, counter-punching technician -- Uses southpaw angles to full effect -- Tall and rangy, he has a versatile inside/outside game -- Takes advantage of opponent's mistakes -- Hand and footspeed compliment his technical ability --Difficult to hit clean,can use his legs to motor himself out of danger or canemploy upper body and head movement to avoid fire in close --Good hand-eye coordination -- Straight left hand carriesdecent power --Short left uppercut thrownto the head or body,is arguablyhis mostvaluable weapon --Devastating body puncher -- Possesses an educated jab, which heuses to maintain distance orin setting up his straight left hand down the middle -- Excellent combination puncher -- Chin remains a question {was knocked out by current WBA and IBO middleweight champion Gennady Golovkinin the 2003 World Championships and was nearly finished by Librado Andradeduring their first bout}
SCENARIO:
Nobody candeny that so far, Carl Froch has faced the tougher andmore variedopposition than Lucian Bute, both at home andover the Atlantic -not many can compete with Froch in this regard. While Froch has always sought out the sternestcompetition available to him,Lucian Bute hassomewhat beenregarded as a safety first, stay-at-home fighterwho has fought just once outside of his adoptedhome of Quebec {and that was in his birthplace of Romania}. Itwillbe interesting to see then,just how Bute willrespond to not having the luxury of the crowd in his corner for the very first timeduring his career. Rather ironically, Lucian Butereminds me of one time Froch target and fellow Brit,Joe Calzaghe. Apart fromhisappearance and southpaw stance, Calzaghe wasanother fighter who was heavily criticized for not stepping outside of his comfort zone to test himself. However,as Calzaghe eventually did against both Hopkins and Jones {the first time Calzaghe stepped outside of Great Britain} I fully expect Lucian Bute to passhis overseas test with flying colours against Carl Froch on Saturday night.
For the record,I consider this to be a contest between the second {Bute}and third best {Froch} super-middleweights in the world. In December of last year, Carl Froch lost a unanimous decision tothe fightermost consider to be the best 168 pounder in the world {Ward} in a one-sided affair, with Ward dominating most of the rounds.Apart fromthe obviousproblems faced in dealing with his opponent'ssuperior athleticismand speed, Froch was alsofound wanting once Wardbrought his superiorinside game into the fight too. Froch had no answerfor Ward's mauling and smothering at close quarters. Frochwas unable to make any tactical adjustments towards thephysical and stylistic advantages that his opponent posed.
Here's Froch's problem. I believehe will be facing an opponent in Buteon Saturday, whoholds evengreater physical andstylistic advantages over him than was the case last time out when he was up against the number one man in the division, Andre Ward.
Let'stake alook at Carl Froch's stance. Froch is a self-professed Roy Jones fan andI believe his stance is a nod to this. Jones' right lead stance provided him withperfect counter-punching opportunities. By having his left hand low, and his right arm extended just in front of him towards his opponents left side, he was able to catch and parry an orthodox opponent's left jab, then using his ridiculous speed, land a counter straight over the top. This stance also allowed Jones to shift his body weight over to his right and land a left hook outside of his opponent's line of vision. This stance served a purpose for Jones.
Needless to say, Carl Froch is not that type of fighter. When I see him operate out of this stance, I feel it is more out of tribute,than out oftechnical value. Unlike Froch, Roy Jones was always much faster than his opponents during his prime. Against a tricky southpawlike Bute -who is a lot faster and possesses better reflexes than Froch-this stance could prove to be suicide. Against a southpaw, the extended right hand is no longer in position to block or parry ajab -it is actually leaving an opening for a left hand, should the southpaw take a short step to his right, something Bute is very adept at doing {also oneof Sergio Martinez' signature moves}.Also, take a look at Froch when he throws his left jab. Frochinadvertently negates his own best weapon against the southpaw,his straight right hand. Carlstands so side-on when throwing the jab, that his right shoulder is almost behind him, thus making it nigh on impossible to release his right hand without telegraphing it first. On a similar note, I also happen to think that Froch is wide open for a right hook from the southpaw stance. Because ofFroch's body alignment {the right hand is coming outsideofhis line of vision} the right hook over the top ofhis left shoulder is something to look out for during the fight -Bute is capable of hurting an opponent with either hand, not just his left.
As was mentioned earlier, Froch was unable to compete with Andre Ward on the inside,becauseof his distinct lack ofin-fighting skills. What is worrying for Froch, is whileWard may be more effective in close than Bute, "Le Tombeur"may actually be more dangerous at this range. Wardis all about smothering and negatingon the inside. He is similar to Bernard Hopkins in that regard. Lucian Bute however, is more like that of James Toney in close. Using his "Philly Shell" or half arm cover defense, Buteturns theright shoulder in, looking todeflect punches and create an opening to throw his left uppercut which, I believe to be,is one of the most devastating punches in all of boxing. Carl Froch is the owner of one of boxing's most durable chins, yet I have a feeling it is going to be put to the test on Saturday night.
Even with the hometown advantage, it's difficult tosee how Carl Froch wins this fight. I think Bute is themore polishedfighter, regardless of the destination of the action. I can see Bute using hissuperior speed at a distance, outboxing him behind his jab, or using his better craft in close, picking Carl off with short, crisp counters on the inside.I believe Froch's best weapon is his jab, but against Bute, the timing of it has to be perfect, otherwise it's notbeyond reasontobelieve Bute neutralizes the Froch jab early with his right shoulder, and doesn't even allow Froch into the fight. InFroch's favour, he doesown a very gooduppercut, if he can time it right -Bute's chin has not looked great on the few times it has been dented- andbring the crowd into the fight, then Bute could find himself in the trenches for the first time in his career. We are yet to see how Bute will react to true adversity. On the other hand, we have seen Froch come from behind before.
Realistically though, apart from a few moments here and there, I'm expecting Bute to really cement his status as one of boxing'selite by putting on a tremendous display away from home. Bute is the more accurate puncher, he is faster, he is the better defender and he is the harder hitter -I believe hewill be able tomasterFroch from the outside and on the insidefor much ofthe fight. One other thing...we know Froch's chin is proven, but against Bute? Butemight justbe the single hardest puncherFroch has ever faced who hasthe handspeedand accuracy that enables him to land with regularity.
PREDICTION:
Barring any controversy -namely ashocking home town decisionin favour ofFroch- I expect Bute to win acomfortable decision and -unlike Ward-even hurt Froch a few times along the way.
THE FIGHT:
Lucian Buteversus Carl Froch
Saturday, May 26
At the Capital FM Arena, Nottingham, England, on EPIX and SKY SPORTS.
12 rounds, for Bute's IBF super-middleweight title {168 pounds}
STATISTICS:
Carl FrochLucian Bute
34Age 32
Nottingham, England HometownPechea, Romania
BritishNationality Canadian
Mar 16 2002 Pro DebutNov 22 2003
28-2{20}Record 30-0 {24}
6ft 1ins Height 6ft 2ins
74 1/2ins Reach 72 ins
Orthodox Stance Southpaw
211 Rounds Boxed 193
66.67KO % 80
-6 Compubox +/-+10
27%Connect rate 32%
33%Opponent's connect rate 22%
Common Opponents
W KO 11Brian MageeW TKO 10
W TKO 2Sergey TatevosyanW UD 12
W MD 12 Glen Johnson W UD 12
Last5 Fights
L UD Andre Ward W UD 12 Glen Johnson
W MD 12 Glen Johnson W KO 4 Jean-Paul Mendy
W UD 12 Arthur Abraham W TKO 10 Brian Magee
L UD 12 Mikkel Kessler W KO 9 Jesse Brinkley
W SD 12 Andre Dirrell W TKO 2 Edison Miranda
****Career Opposition Quality **1/2
****1/2Recent Opposition Quality ***
STYLE, STRATEGY & SHOT SELECTION:
Carl Froch: No longerthe one dimensional slugger of old, Froch is now more of an unorthodox boxer-puncher -- Awkward but effective rhythmconfuses opponents -- Deceptivelyquick hands -- Good conditioning -- Tall, with long arms, he operates betterfrom the outside than on the inside-- World class chin compensates for defensive deficiencies -- Carries hands low,looking to entice opponentsinto opening up -- Vastly underrated jab -- Despite common perception, is actuallymore effectivebacking up behindthe jab, which he throws from a very obtuse angle, as opposed toapplying relentless pressure andbrawling--Owner ofgood power, particularly withthe right uppercut, although he hasn't finished an opponent since 2009 -- Distinct lack of footspeed and athleticism hurt him against Andre Ward last time out-- Can overwhelm an opponent with volume -- Supreme self confidence and mental toughnessare his best assets.
Lucian Bute: Slick, counter-punching technician -- Uses southpaw angles to full effect -- Tall and rangy, he has a versatile inside/outside game -- Takes advantage of opponent's mistakes -- Hand and footspeed compliment his technical ability --Difficult to hit clean,can use his legs to motor himself out of danger or canemploy upper body and head movement to avoid fire in close --Good hand-eye coordination -- Straight left hand carriesdecent power --Short left uppercut thrownto the head or body,is arguablyhis mostvaluable weapon --Devastating body puncher -- Possesses an educated jab, which heuses to maintain distance orin setting up his straight left hand down the middle -- Excellent combination puncher -- Chin remains a question {was knocked out by current WBA and IBO middleweight champion Gennady Golovkinin the 2003 World Championships and was nearly finished by Librado Andradeduring their first bout}
SCENARIO:
Nobody candeny that so far, Carl Froch has faced the tougher andmore variedopposition than Lucian Bute, both at home andover the Atlantic -not many can compete with Froch in this regard. While Froch has always sought out the sternestcompetition available to him,Lucian Bute hassomewhat beenregarded as a safety first, stay-at-home fighterwho has fought just once outside of his adoptedhome of Quebec {and that was in his birthplace of Romania}. Itwillbe interesting to see then,just how Bute willrespond to not having the luxury of the crowd in his corner for the very first timeduring his career. Rather ironically, Lucian Butereminds me of one time Froch target and fellow Brit,Joe Calzaghe. Apart fromhisappearance and southpaw stance, Calzaghe wasanother fighter who was heavily criticized for not stepping outside of his comfort zone to test himself. However,as Calzaghe eventually did against both Hopkins and Jones {the first time Calzaghe stepped outside of Great Britain} I fully expect Lucian Bute to passhis overseas test with flying colours against Carl Froch on Saturday night.
For the record,I consider this to be a contest between the second {Bute}and third best {Froch} super-middleweights in the world. In December of last year, Carl Froch lost a unanimous decision tothe fightermost consider to be the best 168 pounder in the world {Ward} in a one-sided affair, with Ward dominating most of the rounds.Apart fromthe obviousproblems faced in dealing with his opponent'ssuperior athleticismand speed, Froch was alsofound wanting once Wardbrought his superiorinside game into the fight too. Froch had no answerfor Ward's mauling and smothering at close quarters. Frochwas unable to make any tactical adjustments towards thephysical and stylistic advantages that his opponent posed.
Here's Froch's problem. I believehe will be facing an opponent in Buteon Saturday, whoholds evengreater physical andstylistic advantages over him than was the case last time out when he was up against the number one man in the division, Andre Ward.
Let'stake alook at Carl Froch's stance. Froch is a self-professed Roy Jones fan andI believe his stance is a nod to this. Jones' right lead stance provided him withperfect counter-punching opportunities. By having his left hand low, and his right arm extended just in front of him towards his opponents left side, he was able to catch and parry an orthodox opponent's left jab, then using his ridiculous speed, land a counter straight over the top. This stance also allowed Jones to shift his body weight over to his right and land a left hook outside of his opponent's line of vision. This stance served a purpose for Jones.
Needless to say, Carl Froch is not that type of fighter. When I see him operate out of this stance, I feel it is more out of tribute,than out oftechnical value. Unlike Froch, Roy Jones was always much faster than his opponents during his prime. Against a tricky southpawlike Bute -who is a lot faster and possesses better reflexes than Froch-this stance could prove to be suicide. Against a southpaw, the extended right hand is no longer in position to block or parry ajab -it is actually leaving an opening for a left hand, should the southpaw take a short step to his right, something Bute is very adept at doing {also oneof Sergio Martinez' signature moves}.Also, take a look at Froch when he throws his left jab. Frochinadvertently negates his own best weapon against the southpaw,his straight right hand. Carlstands so side-on when throwing the jab, that his right shoulder is almost behind him, thus making it nigh on impossible to release his right hand without telegraphing it first. On a similar note, I also happen to think that Froch is wide open for a right hook from the southpaw stance. Because ofFroch's body alignment {the right hand is coming outsideofhis line of vision} the right hook over the top ofhis left shoulder is something to look out for during the fight -Bute is capable of hurting an opponent with either hand, not just his left.
As was mentioned earlier, Froch was unable to compete with Andre Ward on the inside,becauseof his distinct lack ofin-fighting skills. What is worrying for Froch, is whileWard may be more effective in close than Bute, "Le Tombeur"may actually be more dangerous at this range. Wardis all about smothering and negatingon the inside. He is similar to Bernard Hopkins in that regard. Lucian Bute however, is more like that of James Toney in close. Using his "Philly Shell" or half arm cover defense, Buteturns theright shoulder in, looking todeflect punches and create an opening to throw his left uppercut which, I believe to be,is one of the most devastating punches in all of boxing. Carl Froch is the owner of one of boxing's most durable chins, yet I have a feeling it is going to be put to the test on Saturday night.
Even with the hometown advantage, it's difficult tosee how Carl Froch wins this fight. I think Bute is themore polishedfighter, regardless of the destination of the action. I can see Bute using hissuperior speed at a distance, outboxing him behind his jab, or using his better craft in close, picking Carl off with short, crisp counters on the inside.I believe Froch's best weapon is his jab, but against Bute, the timing of it has to be perfect, otherwise it's notbeyond reasontobelieve Bute neutralizes the Froch jab early with his right shoulder, and doesn't even allow Froch into the fight. InFroch's favour, he doesown a very gooduppercut, if he can time it right -Bute's chin has not looked great on the few times it has been dented- andbring the crowd into the fight, then Bute could find himself in the trenches for the first time in his career. We are yet to see how Bute will react to true adversity. On the other hand, we have seen Froch come from behind before.
Realistically though, apart from a few moments here and there, I'm expecting Bute to really cement his status as one of boxing'selite by putting on a tremendous display away from home. Bute is the more accurate puncher, he is faster, he is the better defender and he is the harder hitter -I believe hewill be able tomasterFroch from the outside and on the insidefor much ofthe fight. One other thing...we know Froch's chin is proven, but against Bute? Butemight justbe the single hardest puncherFroch has ever faced who hasthe handspeedand accuracy that enables him to land with regularity.
PREDICTION:
Barring any controversy -namely ashocking home town decisionin favour ofFroch- I expect Bute to win acomfortable decision and -unlike Ward-even hurt Froch a few times along the way.