casper
11-08-2009, 04:39 PM
Pakistan's nuclear weapons are safe, for now
By Myra MacDonald - Analysis
LONDON - Pakistan's nuclear installations are so well guarded that Islamist militants behind a wave of violence in the country's heartland would find it very hard to storm them and steal material for a nuclear bomb, analysts say.
But the sophistication of recent attacks and their proximity to Pakistan's nuclear infrastructure suggest this risk, while low, remains a cause for worry.
"I don't think it is realistic any more to say there is no threat to these weapons, that they are totally safe," said Professor Shaun Gregory at Britain's University of Bradford.
Heavy conventional guarding, a blanket of secrecy, deliberate deception, the separation of warheads from missiles, and security practices adopted from the United States are all used to protect weapons and nuclear installations.
The nightmare scenario would be of militants using a suicide bombing as a diversionary tactic in order to send in a team of commandos -- similar to those who attacked the Pakistan Army's own headquarters last month in the city of Rawalpindi.
Then, and given the secrecy surrounding Pakistan's nuclear program this would need collusion and information from inside, they would try to grab fissile material for a nuclear bomb.
"If commandos managed to penetrate a nuclear installation, that would be a very serious breach," said Sharon Squassoni, at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.
"It's likely they would fail, it's very likely they would fail, but that would be a bit too close for comfort."
It is a scenario the army, which guards its nuclear assets as its best defense against Pakistan's bigger neighbor India, will do everything in its power to avoid.
"If the Pakistan Army does one thing, it will be to ensure the nuclear assets stay with them," said Rahul Roy-Chaudhury at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.
"These are the key strategic assets of the Pakistan Army. This is what prevents India from attacking them, in their view."
Indeed so well guarded are the nuclear weapons that in the event of war, no outside power could take them out.
"The Americans, the Indians, the Israelis do not have any chance of spiriting these weapons away except with the help of the Pakistan Army," said Gregory.
PERSONNEL VETTING
The military has also long been aware of the need to keep Islamist militant sympathizers away from the nuclear weapons program -- a concern frequently cited given close links in the past between the army and various militant groups.
By Myra MacDonald - Analysis
LONDON - Pakistan's nuclear installations are so well guarded that Islamist militants behind a wave of violence in the country's heartland would find it very hard to storm them and steal material for a nuclear bomb, analysts say.
But the sophistication of recent attacks and their proximity to Pakistan's nuclear infrastructure suggest this risk, while low, remains a cause for worry.
"I don't think it is realistic any more to say there is no threat to these weapons, that they are totally safe," said Professor Shaun Gregory at Britain's University of Bradford.
Heavy conventional guarding, a blanket of secrecy, deliberate deception, the separation of warheads from missiles, and security practices adopted from the United States are all used to protect weapons and nuclear installations.
The nightmare scenario would be of militants using a suicide bombing as a diversionary tactic in order to send in a team of commandos -- similar to those who attacked the Pakistan Army's own headquarters last month in the city of Rawalpindi.
Then, and given the secrecy surrounding Pakistan's nuclear program this would need collusion and information from inside, they would try to grab fissile material for a nuclear bomb.
"If commandos managed to penetrate a nuclear installation, that would be a very serious breach," said Sharon Squassoni, at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.
"It's likely they would fail, it's very likely they would fail, but that would be a bit too close for comfort."
It is a scenario the army, which guards its nuclear assets as its best defense against Pakistan's bigger neighbor India, will do everything in its power to avoid.
"If the Pakistan Army does one thing, it will be to ensure the nuclear assets stay with them," said Rahul Roy-Chaudhury at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.
"These are the key strategic assets of the Pakistan Army. This is what prevents India from attacking them, in their view."
Indeed so well guarded are the nuclear weapons that in the event of war, no outside power could take them out.
"The Americans, the Indians, the Israelis do not have any chance of spiriting these weapons away except with the help of the Pakistan Army," said Gregory.
PERSONNEL VETTING
The military has also long been aware of the need to keep Islamist militant sympathizers away from the nuclear weapons program -- a concern frequently cited given close links in the past between the army and various militant groups.