casper
11-27-2009, 09:46 AM
Republicans see Arkansas senate seat as big target
Reuters
By Matthew Bigg - Analysis
LITTLE ROCK, Arkansas - If Republicans are to turn anger at President Barack Obama's policies into big gains in the 2010 elections, there is no better place to start than by defeating Senator Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas.
Alone among moderate Democrats who voted on Saturday to open a Senate debate on healthcare reform, Lincoln faces re-election next year and sagging poll numbers have Republicans scenting a possible upset.
The fact that she provided the vital 60th vote to start the debate increases her vulnerability, say state Republicans.
"The people of Arkansas will surely see through Blanche Lincoln's little game and they may not be happy about it," said an editorial in the Arkansas Democrat Gazette, the state's leading newspaper.
"Having sown the wind (with her vote), the senator could reap the whirlwind when she comes up for re-election next year," said the paper.
But Lincoln retains formidable advantages as an incumbent running for a third six-year term, including a deep war chest and close ties to the state's vital agricultural industry.
Beyond that, Arkansas has a tradition of electing leaders based on personality rather than party and that could work in Lincoln's favor if she is seen as an effective advocate for the state's 3 million residents, according to analysts.
Lincoln says reform of the $2.5 trillion U.S. healthcare sector will help Arkansas, where nearly 500,000 people lack health insurance, but she opposes a government-run insurance program and says the bill needs better cost control.
She also laughs off criticism of her stance on the issue.
"The political sides have been hitting me from both sides, whether it's the left or whether it's the right. And they are going to continue to do that even after healthcare is long gone," she told reporters in Little Rock.
Healthcare reform will solidify opposition to Lincoln even without the public option because residents fear they will pay the price for a massive new government program, said Gilbert Baker, who leads a wide field of Republican challengers.
But a bigger danger for Lincoln than Republican ire could be demoralization within her own ranks, said Blake Rutherford, a liberal blogger and talk show host in Little Rock.
Job losses, the national debt and the war in Afghanistan have combined to create a "subdued" mood among state Democrats even though many of those problems could be blamed on former President George W. Bush, Rutherford said.
"The biggest challenge is that 2010 doesn't excite Democrats. They just don't feel the enthusiasm of 2008 and they don't feel the need to rally behind Blanche Lincoln," he said.
Democrats have a majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives.
Reuters
By Matthew Bigg - Analysis
LITTLE ROCK, Arkansas - If Republicans are to turn anger at President Barack Obama's policies into big gains in the 2010 elections, there is no better place to start than by defeating Senator Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas.
Alone among moderate Democrats who voted on Saturday to open a Senate debate on healthcare reform, Lincoln faces re-election next year and sagging poll numbers have Republicans scenting a possible upset.
The fact that she provided the vital 60th vote to start the debate increases her vulnerability, say state Republicans.
"The people of Arkansas will surely see through Blanche Lincoln's little game and they may not be happy about it," said an editorial in the Arkansas Democrat Gazette, the state's leading newspaper.
"Having sown the wind (with her vote), the senator could reap the whirlwind when she comes up for re-election next year," said the paper.
But Lincoln retains formidable advantages as an incumbent running for a third six-year term, including a deep war chest and close ties to the state's vital agricultural industry.
Beyond that, Arkansas has a tradition of electing leaders based on personality rather than party and that could work in Lincoln's favor if she is seen as an effective advocate for the state's 3 million residents, according to analysts.
Lincoln says reform of the $2.5 trillion U.S. healthcare sector will help Arkansas, where nearly 500,000 people lack health insurance, but she opposes a government-run insurance program and says the bill needs better cost control.
She also laughs off criticism of her stance on the issue.
"The political sides have been hitting me from both sides, whether it's the left or whether it's the right. And they are going to continue to do that even after healthcare is long gone," she told reporters in Little Rock.
Healthcare reform will solidify opposition to Lincoln even without the public option because residents fear they will pay the price for a massive new government program, said Gilbert Baker, who leads a wide field of Republican challengers.
But a bigger danger for Lincoln than Republican ire could be demoralization within her own ranks, said Blake Rutherford, a liberal blogger and talk show host in Little Rock.
Job losses, the national debt and the war in Afghanistan have combined to create a "subdued" mood among state Democrats even though many of those problems could be blamed on former President George W. Bush, Rutherford said.
"The biggest challenge is that 2010 doesn't excite Democrats. They just don't feel the enthusiasm of 2008 and they don't feel the need to rally behind Blanche Lincoln," he said.
Democrats have a majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives.