Consumer Electronics Association (CEA) Cuts 3DTV Forecast For 2010


Trade Association Now Expects 1.05 Million Units Shipped to Dealers
By Todd Spangler -- Multichannel News, 2/25/2010 1:57:07 PM

The Consumer Electronics Association -- which last month projected more than 4 million 3DTV sets would ship this year -- is now putting the number at 1.05 million units, after narrowing the definition of what it considers a 3D television set.

In December the CEA had estimated 2.2 million 3DTVs will ship in 2010. Then last month, as part of announcing its 2010 sales forecast at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, the trade group raised projections to more than 4 million 3DTV sets for the year.

Now the trade group is forecasting 1.05 million units shipped to dealers, representing $2.05 billion in revenue. That implies an average selling price of $1,952 per unit for 3DTVs.

CEA spokesman Steve Kidera said the previous figures were based on a broader definition for 3D television sets. "The new definition clearly describes the different display approaches inherent in today's 3DTV sets and the new forecast better captures the market opportunity," Kidera said.

Previously, the trade group loosely defined the 3D television category by minimum screen-refresh rate (to be capable of rendering left- and right-eye images), and the prior projections encompassed HDTVs that had refresh rates of 120 MHz or higher.

According to the CEA's new definition, a 3DTV is a digital television that has HDMI 1.4 support for a 3D video source using at least one industry standard format aside from anaglyph (the old-fashioned red-and-blue stereoscopic technique). Version 1.4 of the HDMI spec, which become publicly available Feb. 3, essentially adds a way for a 3DTV set to indicate its capabilities to a set-top box or DVD player.

Furthermore, a 3DTV for the CEA's forecasting purposes must include support for at least one of the following three 3D display approaches: active shutter glasses through a built-in emitter or a jack for an accessory emitter with matching active shutter glasses available with the product or separately as an accessory; polarized glasses through polarized display filter with matching polarized glasses available with the product or separately as an accessory; or an autostereoscopic display -- i.e., one that requires no glasses -- such as those using lenticular lens or parallax barrier technologies.

The revised CEA forecast is in line with projections from research firm DisplaySearch, a subsidiary of NPD Group, which put 3DTV unit shipments at 1 million for 2010 and increasing to 9 million by 2012.

At CES, 3DTV was a major focus, with Panasonic, Sony, LG Electronics, Toshiba and Vizio announcing new 3D televisions and Blu-ray Disc players, while programmers, including Discovery Communications and ESPN, touted plans for new 3D content.

ESPN is gearing up to debut a limited 3DTV channel with the June 11 broadcast of the first match of the FIFA World Cup, and DirecTV is readying three dedicated 3D channels for June. Discovery, meanwhile, announced a joint venture with Sony and IMAX to launch a 24-hour linear 3D service in 2011 with movies, documentaries and children's programming.

Some programmers are expecting the adoption curve of 3DTV to mimic that of high-definition. Discovery founder and chairman John Hendricks predicted that about 5 million households are "early adopters" that will purchase a 3DTV set within the next 24 to 36 months, with another approximately 20 million affluent households that will subsequently adopt the technology.